“AGI arriving in the next decade seems a very serious possibility indeed,” noted LessWrong researcher Daniel Kokotajlo. He and his colleagues split their model progress into stages, the last approaching the understood limits of human intelligence. “Already many AI researchers claim that AI is accelerating their work,” they wrote.
But, they added, “the extent to which it is actually accelerating their work is unfortunately unclear.” Likely, it is a “nonzero,” but potentially very small, impact that could increase as AI becomes more capable. Eventually, this could allow AI systems to outperform humans at “super exponential” speeds, according to the researchers, introducing yet another factor for consideration.
What this means for enterprises
The altered timeline is an “important signal” for enterprises, noted Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst at Greyhound Research. It shows that even sophisticated models are “extremely sensitive” to assumptions about feedback loops, diminishing returns, and bottlenecks.
