When reports emerged in recent weeks that liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from the Gulf had been disrupted and some Indian fertilizer plants were curtailing production, the development attracted little public attention.
Yet the episode points to a deeper strategic vulnerability. Behind the headlines about oil prices and tanker routes lies a quieter but potentially more consequential risk for India: the possibility that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the supply of urea—the single most important fertilizer sustaining the country’s agricultural system.
India’s agricultural economy remains heavily dependent on nitrogenous fertilizers, particularly urea. More than half of the nation’s workforce is still linked to agriculture directly or indirectly, and millions of farmers rely on subsidised urea for crops ranging from rice and wheat to maize and cotton. Even a modest disruption in supply or spike in prices can therefore reverberate across rural incomes, food prices, and government finances.
The current concern arises from the geography of the global fertilizer trade. A large share of internationally traded urea originates from producers located around the Persian Gulf. These countries possess abundant natural gas, the primary feedstock used to produce ammonia and urea.
According to market estimates, India imported more than ten million tonnes of urea in recent years, with a substantial portion coming from the Middle East. The same region also supplies a major share of India’s liquefied natural gas, which fuels domestic fertilizer plants.
The vulnerability becomes evident when geopolitical tensions escalate. The conflict in the Middle East has raised fears about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
The narrow passage serves as a vital artery for global energy trade, carrying a significant share of crude oil, LNG, and LPG shipments moving from the Gulf to Asian markets. Any interruption in this corridor can cascade through sectors dependent on imported gas, including fertilizer manufacturing.
The link between gas supply and fertilizer production is direct. Urea is produced from ammonia, which itself is derived from natural gas through energy-intensive chemical processes. When gas supplies tighten or prices spike, fertilizer production quickly becomes uneconomical or physically constrained.
Recent reports indicate that some Indian urea producers have already slowed or halted operations after the conflict disrupted LNG flows, illustrating how quickly geopolitical shocks can translate into agricultural risk.
The broader energy disruption is already visible. The Middle East accounts for a significant share of India’s crude oil and LPG imports. Analysts have warned that a major disruption in Gulf shipping routes could trigger shortages of LPG cylinders in India, affecting millions of households. While the LPG issue directly affects urban consumers, the fertilizer dimension of the crisis could be far more consequential for rural India.
Recognising the potential risks, government agencies and industry bodies have sought to reassure farmers and markets. The Fertiliser Association of India recently stated that supplies of urea and phosphatic fertilizers remain adequate for the upcoming agricultural season. The association emphasised that existing inventories and ongoing import arrangements should ensure sufficient availability during the kharif sowing period.
Government data appears to support this assessment. According to the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, national stocks of urea and other fertilizers remain higher than the levels recorded during the same period last year. The ministry has indicated that proactive planning and diversified procurement have helped maintain stable inventories despite global uncertainties.
Yet the underlying structural challenge remains unresolved. India continues to rely heavily on imported natural gas and imported fertilizers to meet domestic demand. Although the government has expanded domestic fertilizer capacity over the past decade and revived several closed plants, demand growth in the agricultural sector still exceeds domestic production.
This dependency means that geopolitical disruptions in distant regions can rapidly translate into pressure on India’s agricultural economy. If LNG supplies remain volatile or if fertilizer exports from the Gulf decline, India may face rising import costs. Because urea prices are heavily subsidised, such increases would likely be absorbed by the government through higher fertilizer subsidy expenditures.
The fiscal implications could be significant. During the global fertilizer crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war, India’s fertilizer subsidy bill surged dramatically as international prices rose. A similar scenario could unfold if Middle Eastern tensions disrupt supply chains for an extended period.
For policymakers, the episode underscores a broader strategic lesson. Food security is closely intertwined with energy security and geopolitical stability. Fertilizer supply chains depend not only on agricultural policy but also on maritime routes, natural gas markets, and regional political dynamics.
India has already taken some steps to mitigate these risks by expanding domestic fertilizer production capacity, diversifying import sources, and building stronger strategic partnerships with global suppliers. However, the present crisis highlights how fragile global supply chains remain in an era of geopolitical competition.
If the conflict in the Middle East continues to destabilise energy markets, the consequences will not be limited to oil prices or shipping insurance rates. The ripple effects may reach the fields of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh, where millions of farmers depend on timely access to urea to sustain crop yields.
In that sense, the most consequential impact of distant wars may not appear immediately in the energy markets that dominate global headlines. It may emerge quietly in fertilizer inventories, agricultural planning cycles, and government subsidy budgets—areas where geopolitical shocks intersect with the everyday realities of food production.
