There’s the worst-case scenario. But what if we apply a bit of imagination?
A similar case happened during the Industrial Revolution. In the mid-19th century, steam engines were the leading technology, and as they became more efficient, coal miners grew concerned that demand for their services would drop as those engines used less and less coal.
But the coal miners lacked imagination — more efficient steam engines led to the unexpected result of an increase in the demand for coal. This counterintuitive outcome was noticed by economist William Stanley Jevons, who realized that cheaper, more efficient steam engines led to their more widespread use in ways that hadn’t yet been conceived, thus expanding the need for both coal miners and factory workers to build more and better steam engines. Everybody wins.
And why won’t the same thing be true for software? Can’t we imagine a world where the amount of software demanded and produced expands beyond what we think of today? The “programmers selling apples” scenario assumes that the demand for software remains constant. But if producing software becomes more efficient, won’t that lead to more software being produced?
