A record number of people settled in the UK last year. The government wants to slow that down, and every expat working towards permanent residence is now caught between the rules that exist and the rules that might. By Sunny Sandhu, Senior Immigration Associate, AY&J Solicitors.
Nearly 200,000 people were granted the right to settle permanently in the UK in the year to June 2026. That is 199,628 to be exact, according to Home Office figures, up 24 per cent on the year before and the highest total since 2011. For each of them, it was the end of a long climb: five years of visas, fees and paperwork, finally rewarded with indefinite leave to remain.
That number is also, in a sense, the problem. The government looks at a rising tide of settlement and sees something it wants to slow. And that is why, if you are an expat somewhere on the same climb, you have probably seen headlines warning that the five-year wait is about to double to ten. So here is the first thing worth knowing, before the anxiety sets in: it has not. Not yet.
As things stand in September 2026, the five-year route to settlement is fully open and working exactly as it always has. The much-discussed “earned settlement” reform, which would raise the standard qualifying period to a ten-year baseline, is a proposal. It was set out in the government’s 2025 White Paper, consulted on until February 2026, and drew more than 200,000 responses. But no new rules have been laid before Parliament, and until they are, nothing has actually changed.
What has changed is the mood. The Home Secretary confirmed in March that the government intends to press ahead, with an implementation target of autumn 2026, though no firm date has been set. More unsettling for anyone already here, she indicated the longer wait is meant to apply not just to new arrivals but to people already in the country who have not yet been granted settlement. That single point, whether a reform can move the goalposts for someone who arrived in 2022 expecting to settle in 2027, is now the most fiercely contested question in UK immigration, and it is precisely the one the government has left unanswered.
If that sounds like a lot of uncertainty, it is, and uncertainty is uncomfortable to plan around. But it is not the same as bad news. Some groups look likely to be spared altogether: on the proposals as drafted, holders of EU Settled Status, people on the spouse and partner route, and British National (Overseas) visa holders are expected to keep their current routes. And the practical takeaway for everyone else is oddly reassuring, because it points in one clear direction.
The single most useful move, for anyone close to qualifying, is to apply under the current rules while they are still the current rules. An application decided today is decided on today’s terms. Reach the finish line before any change lands, and the whole debate becomes academic for you. It is advice worth acting on rather than filing away: in the settlement cases handled at AY&J Solicitors, which advises individuals on indefinite leave to remain and settlement, the people who come through this calmly are almost always the ones who worked out their timeline early and moved on it, rather than the ones who waited for a certainty that never quite arrived.
“The worst thing you can do right now is make a life decision based on a headline,” says Yash Dubal, CEO of AY&J Solicitors. “The five-year route is still open. For a great many people the right answer is simply to apply under the current rules while they can. That is a far better use of energy than losing sleep over a proposal that is not yet law.”
The rules may well tighten in the months ahead. The direction of travel is not in doubt, and it would be naive to pretend otherwise. But change and panic are two different things, and the gap between them is where good decisions are made. The record 200,000 who settled this year did so under the rules as they are. If you are close behind them, the smartest thing you can do is make sure you are counted while that door is still open.
Not sure where you stand? The quickest way to find out is to check your own settlement timeline with AY&J Solicitors’ free ILR eligibility assessment tool.
Figures: Home Office, year ending June 2026. Position correct as of September 2026; earned settlement is a proposed reform and is not yet law. General information, not legal advice.
