Gogia sees Oracle already under pressure, with the financial ecosystem around the company pricing the risk — one of the largest debts in corporate history, crossing $100 billion even before the capex spend this quarter — evident in the rising cost of insuring the debt and the shift in credit outlook.
“The combination of heavy capex, negative free cash flow, increasing financing cost and long-dated revenue commitments forms a structural pressure that will invariably finds its way into the commercial posture of the vendor,” Gogia said, hinting at an “eventual” increase in pricing of the company’s offerings.
He was equally unconvinced by Magouyrk’s assurances about the margin profile of AI workloads as he believes that AI infrastructure, particularly GPU-heavy clusters, delivers significantly lower margins in the early years because utilisation takes time to ramp.
